COP28: A Special Series

Two months after meeting at the UN General Assembly, world leaders will reconvene in Dubai, the United Arab Emirates, for COP28. The conference will test whether delegates can bring the necessary focus on conflict and climate affected countries and the much-needed support to their adaptation efforts. Half of the countries most vulnerable to climate change also experience conflict, making climate adaptation in fragile states a critical bulwark to future climate and security risks. As political differences in the Security Council have impeded climate, peace and security conversations in New York, November’s forum in Dubai is an opportunity to build on initiatives that began in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, at COP27. COP 28 will for the first time feature a ‘Relief, Recovery and Peace Day’ - the first explicit discussion of peace and conflict at any COP and a pivotal moment in the global climate discourse.

Despite this growing attention, integrating conflict and the needs of fragile and conflict-affected states into the COP dialogue faces systemic constraints. As we published last year, countries experiencing conflict receive on average only half the financing for adaptation compared to those at peace. Nevertheless, it is crucial that leaders capitalise on the current momentum of having peace on the agenda for the first time and mainstream the climate-conflict nexus for successive COPs.The costs of inaction are perilous. As global warming persists unabated, climate change will further stoke food insecurity, displacement and exacerbate conflicts, necessitating expensive humanitarian and security interventions.

This series highlights Crisis Group’s innovative data-driven research on climate issues, emphasising opportunities to address technical and political barriers around climate financing and early warning, to empower those most vulnerable.  

Episodes of unrest in Iran often unfold similarly: the government nods to public concerns, but then resorts to repression, setting the stage for another confrontation between state and society. The pattern is clearest in peripheral provinces like Khuzestan, where a pressing grievance is water scarcity.

Published 21 August 2023. Available here.

On 8 and 9 August, the presidents of eight countries will meet in Brazil to discuss means of countering the threats facing the Amazon rainforest. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Bram Ebus explains that inter-governmental cooperation and a regional security strategy will be essential.

Published 2 August 2023. Available here.

A series of failed rainy seasons in northern Kenya has sharpened competition among herders, farmers and conservancy owners for land and water, often resulting in bloodshed. Authorities should redouble aid to hard-hit areas and, with donor support, look for ways to encourage sharing of resources.

Published 20 April 2023. Available here.

There are indirect, yet undeniable links between climate, the environment and deadly conflict. Today, however, these links are dangerously overlooked. In the Horn of Africa, climate change is already increasing food insecurity, water scarcity and resource competition, while also disrupting livelihoods and spurring migration.

This video brings together two experts for an in-depth discussion on this topic. In it, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Climate, Environment and Conflict in Africa Nazanine Moshiri speaks with Christophe Hodder, the UN’s first ever climate security and environmental adviser to Somalia. From a drought-stricken area in Kenya, they discuss the specific nature of the intersection between climate, environment and conflict in the Horn of Africa, and what must be done to mitigate the risks of violence.

Published 28 February 2023. Available here.

The twenty-seventh annual UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP27) is scheduled to kick off 6 November in Sharm al-Sheikh, Egypt, and “climate financing” is high on the agenda.

At the last COP, reducing future greenhouse gas emissions took centre stage. But in 2022, Egypt is determined to focus on drumming up greater financial support for states struggling with the effects of climate change. Donors will be pressed to follow through with commitments to help climate-affected states tackle challenges such as endangered livelihoods, growing displacement, and sharpened competition for land and water. 

As the discussions unfold, conference participants should keep in mind that many of the states suffering most from climate-related effects – which tend to be located in Africa and elsewhere in the Global South – are also in the throes of conflict. Against this backdrop, COP27 participants should work both to unlock long-promised funding and to ensure that conflict-affected states, which have been under-financed to date, receive their fair share. Working in such places will require funders to do the difficult work of finding ways to mitigate the risks these settings pose. 

Published 1 November 2022. Available here.