Syria's Al-Sharaa govt is at the knife's edge, and attacks by pro-Assad forces isn't the only reason

Following the death of 1,000 people in the ongoing clashes in Syria, the country’s Interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa has launched an investigation into the violence and pledged to hold the perpetrators accountable. For weeks, Syria has been engulfed in clashes between pro-government security forces and fighters who are loyal to ousted Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

While the clashes started in the coastal cities of Latakia and Tartous, its ripple effects are being felt in Damascus as well. “We announce the formation of a fact-finding committee regarding the events on the coast and form a higher committee,” Sharaa said in an address to the nation on Sunday following days of violent unrest, Al Jazeera reported.

In his address, the Syrian leader made it clear that an “independent committee” had been formed to “investigate the violations against civilians and identify those responsible for them”, adding that the perpetrators would be referred to court.

“The Committee has the right to use whoever it deems appropriate to perform its duties, and submit its report to the Presidency of the Republic within a maximum period of thirty days from the date of issuance of this decision,” the presidency’s statement read.

However, the pro-Assad militants are not the only challenge Sharaa is facing regarding bringing Syria back to stability. The interim president has to strike a fine balance between several factions and geopolitical allies and clean its image on the global stage at the same time. Here’s a look at why Sharaa’s concerns are beyond the challenges posed by Assad loyalists.

The extended civil war: Clashes with Assad loyalists create new hinderance

The ongoing fighting began after pro-Assad fighters coordinated attacks on security forces on Thursday. These attacks spiralled into revenge killings as thousands of armed supporters of Syria’s new leadership went to the coastal areas to support the security forces. According to London-based war monitor the Syrian Observatory, the clashes led to over 1,000 deaths in the span of a few days.

In the midst of all this, Sharaa have been calling for “national unity”. “We have to preserve national unity and domestic peace. We can live together,” the president said.

“Rest assured about Syria, this country has the characteristics for survival … What is currently happening in Syria is within the expected challenges," he said.

However, the blind loyalty to Assad, who is said to have been living in-exile in Russia, is not the only reason, these militant groups are fighting pro-government forces. There is more to the story.

The plight of the Syrian minorities

When Sharaa first came to power, he pledged to get rid of his and his group’s “ jihadist” past and ensure the inclusivity of all religious groups and sects in Syrian society. Despite these promises, the minority groups in the country still feel isolated and neglected.

The coastal areas of Syria where the infighting is taking place are also the heartland of Assad’s Alawite minority, an offshoot of Shia Islam. The members of this sect held a prominent role in the erstwhile Syrian regime. However, with the arrival of the Sunni Muslim-led rebels, the Alawite sect lost the power and privilege it once had.

Many of them now claim that they are under attack and often face discrimination. On Friday, activists argued that gunmen had killed dozens of male residents in Alawite areas, which would further exacerbate tensions and make people lose faith in the interim government. The Syrian Observatory said the gunmen were from the government’s security forces, although this has not been verified. Apart from this, Sharaa is also facing faction disputes among his allies.

The brewing factional dispute

Sharaa was confirmed to the new role following a meeting of the leaders of the rebel factions in January this year. Apart from making this announcement, a military spokesperson also announced a series of other changes. This included the dissolution of the Syrian parliament, the formation of an appointed legislative council, and the cancellation of the country’s 2012 constitution.

The Syrian military and security agencies were also dissolved and were replaced by the new security institutions and army. The military spokesperson made it clear, that all armed factions in Syria are to be disbanded since they will be absorbed in the new national army. But there was a catch.

In an ideal circumstance, the order to dissolve the armed factions would entail the dissolution of the HTS. However, the order did not mention the rebel group’s name, leaving many surprised. After assuming the presidential role, Sharaa, along with his minister of defence, has held near-daily meetings with rebel factions and given their leaders key posts within the interim government.

However, there are still significant challenges regarding more radical Islamist rebel factions – many of which make up part of the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army – that are not as disciplined. Things become even more complicated when different factions are supported by different foreign actors who are at war with each other. One major case is the tussle between groups supported by Turkey and the ones supported by Kurds.

Navigating the Turks & Kurds

The government in Damascus headed by Sharaa does not control the whole of Syria, there are different factions, having strongholds in different regions of the country and are supported by different countries.

Last month, Sharaa held talks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The meeting was held in Ankara and marked Sharaa’s second international trip since officially becoming Syria’s interim leader. During the meeting, the two leaders discussed how the two nations can cooperate and fight armed groups Isil (Isis) and Kurdish fighters.

“I would like to express our satisfaction for the strong commitment my brother Ahmed al-Sharaa has shown in the fight against terrorism,” Erdogan said at a joint press conference with Sharaa.

“I told al-Sharaa we are ready to provide the necessary support to Syria in the fight against all kinds of terrorism, whether it be Daesh or the PKK,” he said.

However, one cannot deny the fact that the Syrian-Kurdish fighters also helped in the toppling of the Assad regime. Amid the ongoing clashes, the top commander of a Syrian Kurdish armed group, whose forces are in a separate battle with Turkey, blamed Turkish-backed Islamist factions for the whole disruption, Reuters reported.

Hence, the new Syrian president is stuck between a rock and a hard place. Inclusion of Kurdish factions puts Sharaa in a difficult position with one of his main allies, i.e. Turkey. Meanwhile, Sharaa is also facing pressure from the US, France and some Arab nations to recognise Kurdish rights.

This can be seen with the fact that hundreds of US troops continue to remain in Kurdish-controlled areas to counter IS sleeper cells. Hence, Sharaa would not like to be on the bad side of the US.

Cleaning international image

Sharaa’s challenge to balance Syria’s allies brings in another dilemma, i.e. cleaning his and HTS’s image. The HTS emerged originally an offshoot of the Syrian branch of al-Qaida and was one of the most powerful Syrian groups at the time of the takeover. After the takeover, the Syrian leader, formally known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, said that they’ve broken ties with their Jihadist past.

Before the takeover, the HTS was designated as a terrorist organisation by the UN, the US, the EU and the UK. Given the rise in violence, many are sceptical that Sharaa will continue to stand by his words.

Foreign actors are keeping a close eye to see whether the Syrian regime maintains the trajectory of stability which they more or less have maintained following the ousting of Assad. In the midst of this, the interim government has courted regional powers for support in bolstering its fledgling state and army, seeking foreign funds and legitimacy.

Sharaa’s first international trip was to Saudi Arabia where Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman embraced him with open arms. During the meeting, MBS called for more calm in Syria, which would allow him to focus on Saudi Arabia’s resources on his domestic reform agenda and economic diversification campaign rather than regional problems. This reflects the fact that Sharaa has to maintain stability within Syria to attract foreign investments.

What about Russia and Iran, Assad’s old allies?

Soon after toppling the Assad regime, Sharaa told Al Arabiya that he wanted relations with Iran and Russia, but he insisted any ties must be based on mutual “respect”. Both Russia and Iran were major allies of Assad and even helped the ousted president to save his seat. “Syria cannot continue without relations with an important regional country like Iran,” Sharaa told Al Arabiya.

However, it remains unclear whether Russia and Iran will abandon Assad, given the fact that he and his family are seeking refuge in Moscow. Not only this, ties with Iran and Russia would also not sit well with the West, who Sharaa is currently courting.

Meanwhile, Israel is trying to gain benefits from the instability in the country. Right after the fall of the Assad regime, the Jewish nation announced that it had “seized” territory in Syrian-controlled areas of the Golan Heights. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the 1974 ceasefire agreement between the two nations has collapsed and maintained that Israel would continue to control the region until there’s some stability in Syria.

However, there is no guarantee to that promise. All these challenges now leave Sharaa in a dicey situation as he plans to hold elections in the country and attempts to ensure a smooth transition.

(With inputs from agencies)