Biden isn’t stopping Assad’s comeback

With help from Daniel Lippman.

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Syrian President BASHAR ASSAD is clawing his way back from global pariah status — and the United States is struggling to stop his rehabilitation.

On Tuesday, the United Arab Emirates’ foreign minister, Sheikh ABDULLAH BIN ZAYED AL NAHYAN, met with Assad in Damascus, a signal that regional nations are looking past the civil war that has killed over 400,000 people and displaced millions. Jordan’s king recently spoke on the phone with the dictator, and Egypt’s foreign minister said Syria could rejoin the Arab League if it took steps to improve regional security.

Multiple current and former U.S. officials say a key reason for this rapprochement, apart from the desire to counter Iran, is that the Biden administration isn’t discouraging Arab partners from reengaging with Assad.

“None of them have been told not to” speak with Assad by senior American officials, JAMES JEFFREY, the Trump administration’s special representative for Syria, said in an interview about his recent conversations with senior Arab leaders. As a result, these leaders — who Jeffrey refused to name — feel they have an implicit green light to strengthen ties with Assad’s regime.

President JOE BIDEN’s team firmly denies this. “We have been clear that we do not support any efforts to normalize ties with or rehabilitate the brutal dictator Bashar al-Assad,” a senior administration official told NatSec Daily. “The United States will not normalize or upgrade its relations with the Assad regime on account of the grave atrocities the regime has committed against the Syrian people. We have asked countries in the region to focus their engagement in Syria on efforts to improve the situation on the ground for the Syrian people.”

The official continued that what the U.S is doing, now that an initial review of Syria policy has concluded, is “expanding humanitarian access to increase levels of aid throughout Syria,” “sustaining the U.S. and coalition campaign against ISIS and al-Qaeda,” demanding accountability by pushing for human rights and non-proliferation via sanctions, and “sustaining local ceasefires in place across the country.”

All that said, the U.S. has made it easier on Arab nations to slowly rebuild relations. “I’m not sure we are willing or able to expend the energy and political capital to push them hard on this,” a State Department official told NatSec Daily on the condition of anonymity to speak about sensitive discussions. “The broader trend is that we aren’t making an all-out push on these issues but instead managing the diplomacy.”

And while the U.S. is telling Arab partners not to normalize ties with Assad’s Syria, “they see a future where we are not the same pervasive security blanker that we have been for the past 30 years and are adapting by trying to figure out how to live together and balance,” the official continued.

“That is the dynamic that is emerging with this administration,” said CAROLINE ROSE of the Newlines Institute in Washington, D.C., which specializes in Middle Eastern politics.

Last month, the administration said Egypt’s deal to send Lebanon gas via a pipeline running through Syria would be shielded from congressionally mandated sanctions on entities that support Assad’s war efforts.

“[B]ecause it falls under the humanitarian category, no sanctions waiver would be required in this instance,” said VICTORIA NULAND, the State Department’s No. 3 official, on Oct. 14. The senior administration official defended this stance: “Our Syria sanctions should not impede humanitarian activity or the provision of assistance to all Syrians in need.”

AMOS HOCHSTEIN, the senior adviser for global energy security at the State Department, insisted that the U.S. should support the pipeline. “The United States does not want to see Lebanese hospitals and water treatment facilities lose power. Reliable and affordable energy is the foundation of any economy and we are working to help address it as quickly and sustainably as possible,” he told NatSec Daily.

But such moves, ironically, might help Assad. “We opened the door,” said DAVID ADESNIK, director of research at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. Arab nations weren’t chatting so openly with Assad “until we approved the energy deal.”

“The level of the contacts went sharply up,” he told us.

In 2019, BRETT MCGURK — now the top Middle East official on the National Security Council — wrote in Foreign Affairs that “Arab states will now reengage with Damascus. Resistance to this trend from Washington will only frustrate the Arab states and encourage them to conduct their diplomacy behind Washington’s back. A better approach would be for the United States to work with its Arab partners to craft a realistic agenda for dealing with Damascus,” such as “encouraging the Arab states to condition their renewed relations with Syria on confidence-building measures from the Assad regime.”

The Inbox

AFGHAN PILOTS LEAVE TAJIKISTAN: Over 140 Afghan pilots and crew members stuck for three months in Tajikistan were finally allowed to leave for the United Arab Emirates, retired Brig. Gen. DAVE HICKS, who runs the Operation Sacred Promise NGO, told NatSec Daily.

He said they arrived around 5 p.m. EST on Tuesday and “they started texting me as soon as they landed.” The Afghans are likely to remain in the UAE for at least three weeks as they quarantine and process paperwork before heading to their final destination.

Hicks couldn’t speak to why it took so long to evacuate the pilots and their team members, saying there was a back and forth between the U.S. and Tajik governments he didn’t see. But now that all are safe, the retired flag officer said “it’s a huge relief to get one problem checked off the list.” But, he made sure to add, “we still got a lot more work to do inside of Afghanistan.”

“It’s a very poor situation that’s getting worse by the day inside of Afghanistan,” Hicks said. “Keeping [those still in Afghanistan] alive and fed and hopeful gets more difficult by the day.”

RETURN OF THE THREE AMIGOS: Biden will host Canadian Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU and Mexican President ANDRÉS MANUEL LÓPEZ OBRADOR in Washington, D.C., next week for the first summit of North American leaders since 2016, the White House confirmed today.

As POLITICO Canada’s ZI-ANN LUM and NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY explain in today’s edition of Ottawa Playbook, the summit “will pick up after some globe-shifting events including the presidency of DONALD TRUMP and the Covid-19 pandemic. Protectionism was high on the minds of leaders then. It’s likely to loom large over the agenda again as the three countries figure out how to deliver on promises of North American climate, energy and defense strategies without tripping over USMCA and trade roadblocks in the form of Biden’s ‘Buy American’ strategy.”

Trudeau hosted the most recent North American Leaders’ Summit in June 2016, which was attended by then-President BARACK OBAMA and then-Mexican President ENRIQUE PEÑA NIETO. Now, the meeting scheduled for Nov. 18 “comes as Biden is being pressured by Republicans to take more aggressive action to deal with the flood of immigrants trying to cross the U.S. southern border,” our own DOUG PALMER reports (for Pros!). “Business groups and lawmakers have also raised concerns about actions taken by López Obrador’s administration that they say threaten U.S. agricultural exports and energy investments in Mexico.”

CHINA EVADING U.S. SPIES: The U.S. is struggling mightily to get intelligence on Chinese President XI JINPING’s inner circle, Bloomberg News’ PETER MARTIN, JENNIFER JACOBS and NICK WADHAMS report, meaning what’s happening inside Beijing is turning into a bigger blind spot for the administration.

“China is becoming a harder target, more opaque, just as the demand for insights into Xi’s decision-making is soaring and tensions with the U.S. are heating up over issues from Taiwan to high technology,” they report. “The current and former officials emphasize that America’s spy agencies have long struggled to provide the insights policy makers demand on China. The hurdles facing the U.S. intelligence community are both deep-seated — Beijing did significant damage to American spy networks in China prior to Xi’s presidency — and basic, including a continuing shortage of Mandarin speakers.”

The CIA didn’t comment on Bloomberg’s story, but since a 2017 New York Times report, it’s been an open secret that China has decimated America’s intelligence network inside the country. The CIA is setting up a new China mission center, but analysts say that well-intentioned move won’t matter much unless and until the U.S. recruits the requisite sources.

CHINESE MILITARY EXERCISES NEAR TAIWAN: In more China news, its forces held an exercise near the democratic island of Taiwan, likely in retaliation for the visit of a U.S. congressional delegation that arrived on military aircraft.

In an announcement, the Chinese Ministry of Defense said it was conducting a “joint war preparedness patrol” as a “necessary measure to safeguard national sovereignty” in response to “seriously incorrect words and actions of relevant countries over the issue of Taiwan.”

NatSec Daily worked hard Tuesday to confirm the lawmakers on the trip, even calling Taiwan’s representative office in Washington, D.C., where a spokesperson said they, too, were unaware of who was on the American Institute in Taiwan-funded visit. The South China Morning Post’s LAWRENCE CHUNG beat us to the punch: The members of Congress on the island include Sens. JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas), TOMMY TUBERVILLE (R-Ala.), MIKE CRAPO (R-Idaho) and MIKE LEE (R-Utah) alongside Rep. JAKE ELLZEY (R-Texas).

This excursion will add a little extra tension to next week’s virtual summit between Biden and Xi, which our own NAHAL TOOSI and PHELIM KINE say will take place on Nov. 15 in the evening.

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Flashpoints

EUROPE GETS FRIENDLIER WITH TAIWAN: For years, European nations worried about getting too close to Taiwan for fear of angering China. That’s no longer the case, the New York Times’ AMY QIN and STEVEN ERLANGER report.

“Two weeks ago, Taiwan’s foreign minister, JOSEPH WU, went on a charm offensive in Europe, stopping in Brussels for unprecedented, though informal, meetings with European Union lawmakers. The European Parliament overwhelmingly backed a resolution calling for stronger ties with Taiwan, which it described as a ‘partner and democratic ally in the Indo-Pacific,’” they wrote. “Then, last week, the Parliament sent its first-ever formal delegation to visit the island, defying Beijing’s threats of retaliation.”

“China’s increasingly assertive brand of authoritarianism under its leader, Xi Jinping, has fed distrust, and some distaste, too. European lawmakers blocked the investment agreement, citing China’s human rights violations and sanctions. Now, concerns about the Chinese Communist Party’s crackdown in Hong Kong, its handling ofthe coronavirus pandemic and its strategy of intimidating Taiwan with Chinese warplanes appear to have also prompted a growing willingness in Europe to re-evaluate — and strengthen — its ties with Taiwan,” they continued.

U.S. officials and experts told NatSec Daily Europe was always the weak link in America’s multilateral effort to push back on China. Now that attitudes are changing in the Old World, Beijing may soon find a Western bloc against it is growing.

Keystrokes

HACKERS TARGETING PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES: The Russian-speaking RocketHack group has infiltrated the email, Telegram accounts, Android phones and other electronics belonging to presidential candidates, human rights activists and reporters, Forbes’ THOMAS BREWSTER reported.

“RocketHack’s primary hacking method is via phishing with emails containing links to fake login pages for Google Gmail, encrypted email service Protonmail and Telegram, amongst others,” Brewster wrote, citing an analysis from Netherlands-based researcher FEIKE HACQUEBORD. “A 2018 advert from the hackers suggested breaching the security-focused Protonmail was its most expensive service at 50,000 rubles ($700 at today’s exchange rate) while cracking a Gmail account would cost 40,000 rubles. But there’s evidence that with some Russian email providers they have some kind of deeper access, as they offer to get into accounts without need to trick the user with phishing emails.”

It’s unclear who’s paying RocketHack, but the belief is — based on the targets — that some countries might be funding the group’s work.

“On its target list were two presidential candidates in Belarus and one member of the opposition party, in a country where a repressive government has sought to crack down on dissent. It also targeted the private emails of the Minister of Defense in an Eastern European country and the former head of an unspecified intelligence agency. Government officials across Ukraine, Slovakia, Russia, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Norway, France and Italy were all targeted this year,” Brewster reported.

The Complex

SPAIN SAYS NO TO F-35: Our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) note the Spanish government said it’s not interested in purchasing the F-35.

The Spanish Air Force is committed to the European Future Combat Air System program and “has no budget to enter into any other jet project in addition to the one that is already in place. We rule out entering the F-35 project. Our investment commitment is in the FCAS,” a Defense Ministry spokesperson told Reuters.

FCAS is an ambitious joint project between France, Germany and Spain to build a next-generation fighter by 2040 to replace France’s Rafale, Germany’s Typhoon and Spain’s EF-18 Hornet. The project is being undertaken by Airbus, Thales Group, Indra Sistemas and Dassault Aviation.

On the Hill

HEARING DATE FOR VCJCS: Morning D also reported the tentative date for Adm. CHRISTOPHER GRADY’s confirmation hearing to be the vice chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff is Dec. 2. That means the position likely will be vacant for a few weeks after the current No. 2, Gen. JOHN HYTEN, retires on Nov. 21.

“A post-Thanksgiving hearing means Hyten will have already retired before Grady faces senators. It’s a reality senators on both sides have acknowledged but will seek to minimize by getting Grady on the job quickly,” our own CONNOR O’BRIEN reported.

And there’s another consequence, too: “The holdup in nominating Grady to be vice chair has already delayed his handover of Fleet Forces Command. His successor, Vice Adm. DARYL CAUDLE, was confirmed by the Senate in July and left his post commanding Submarine Force Atlantic on Sept. 10,” O’Brien wrote.

Broadsides

HOUSE DEMS URGE END TO U.S. SERVICE CONTRACTS FOR SAUDI: Seven House Democrats released a statement today calling on the administration to cancel U.S. military service contracts to support the Saudi Air Force.

“While the administration has suspended offensive weapons sales, it continues to provide logistical support and spare parts that permit an escalation of offensive Saudi Air Force operations in Yemen. That needs to stop,” wrote Reps. TOM MALINOWSKI (D-N.J.), JAMES MCGOVERN (D-Mass.), ADAM SCHIFF (D-Calif.), SARA JACOBS (D-Calif.), COLIN ALLRED (D-Texas), JOAQUÍN CASTRO (D-Texas) and ANDY KIM (D-N.J.). “We urge the administration to review the efficacy of its offensive weapons freeze and consider additional steps to bring about a cessation of airstrikes against belligerents in Yemen’s civil war.”

The service contracts — where U.S. funds support the maintenance of the Saudi Air Force, keeping their warplanes in the sky — remain a key source of tensions between Democrats who want to end the war and the administration. However, the lawmakers didn’t clearly say they oppose a $650 million advanced munitions sale to Riyadh because it is “intended to serve defensive purposes and protect against further Houthi airborne attacks.”

Transitions

— TRICIA SCHMITT ABUMOHOR is now deputy associate director of the international affairs division at the Office of Management and Budget. She most recently was the director of the office of budget and resource management at the United States Agency for International Development.

— ROBB LEMASTERS has been named senior vice president and chief financial officer of BWX Technologies, succeeding DAVID BLACK. LeMasters is currently senior vice president and chief strategy officer for BWXT. Black will remain with the company through April 2022, working as a special adviser to president and chief executive officer REX GEVEDEN.

What to Read

— URI FRIEDMAN, The Atlantic: “The Two Ways to View Our Global Future”

— RYAN FEDASIUK, POLITICO Magazine: “Opinion: We Reviewed Hundreds of Chinese Army Contracts. Here’s What We Found.”

— DAVID LUHNOW and JOSÉ DE CÓRDOBA, The Wall Street Journal: “Nicaragua’s Shift Toward Dictatorship Is Part of a Latin American Backslide”

Tomorrow Today

— Biden will honor U.S. military members and veterans at Arlington National Cemetery: He will participate in the Presidential Armed Forces Full Honor Wreath-Laying Ceremony on the centennial anniversary of the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier and deliver remarks at the National Veterans Day Observance at the Memorial Amphitheater, per the White House.

— The third day of Vice President KAMALA HARRIS’ Paris trip: Second gentleman DOUGLAS EMHOFF will participate in an Armistice Day ceremony at the Lafayette Escadrille Memorial and join French Minister Delegate for Gender Equality, Diversity and Equal Opportunities ÉLISABETH MORENO for a listening session. In the evening, Harris and Emhoff will attend a dinner hosted by French President EMMANUEL MACRON and first lady BRIGITTE MACRON, per the White House.

— The Lowy Institute, 2 a.m.: “2021 Lowy Lecture: JAKE SULLIVAN — with MICHAEL FULLILOVE”

— The International Institute for Strategic Studies, 8 a.m.: “The Global Conflict Landscape, Current and Emerging Hotspots and Areas of Fragility: An Armed Conflict Survey 2021 Event — with BEN BARRY, NIGEL GOULD-DAVIES, NIELS V.S. HARILD, IRENE MIA and BEN SCHREER”

— The Foreign Policy Research Institute, 10 a.m.: “What is Geopolitics and Why Does it Matter? — with RONALD J. GRANIERI”

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And thanks to our editor, John Yearwood, with whom we will always have good relations.